They would not have voted....they're Brits!
It's really difficult to predict what they might do...your choices all seem logical, but there's no telling what living in New York during the time since 9/11 might have done to JL. I can't imagine any of the Lads being pro-war, though.
being a New Yorker myself, I see your point---I dont think anything would've swayed Lennon from his pacifist viewpoint--he & yoko would've stayed anti-war, I think. Speaking from my own Liberal/Democrat leanings, I'm pretty much assured that John's effusive dislike for Nixon would've transferred easily to George W. in
this era...(in fact "Dubya" is even worse, if such a thing is possible)
To answer the question posed, I think they'd invariably back Barack or Sen. Clinton (in fact, I'll go out on a limb here and say Lennon would campaign for Hillary possibly even more because of John's activist views on women's rights...after all, the man who wrote "Woman Is The N***** Of The World" would see it as a great thing if one eventually occupied the Oval Office. I know I would, but that's beside the point.
good luck to either Obama or Clinton...either one will be a vast improvement on what we have now (no offence, conservatives!!...no wait, on second thought...yes, DO take offence

)
-MMM (me..? opinionated???...nah....)